Unemployment worries jump to highest level since 2020 in New York Fed survey

Unemployment worries jump to highest level since 2020 in New York Fed survey
1938 - Unemployment benefits aid begins. Line of men inside a division office of the State Employment Service office at San Francisco, California, waiting to register for benefits on one of the first days the office was open.Photographer - Dorothea Lange by The New York Public Library is licensed under Unsplash unsplash.com
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Monday released its latest Survey of Consumer Expectations, which found that Americans' expectations of the labor market have dimmed to the lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic.

Respondents' expectations that the unemployment rate will be higher one year from now jumped 4.6 percentage points to 44% in March – the highest reading since April 2020. The increase was broad-based across age, education and income groups.

The perceived probability of losing one's job in the next 12 months increased by 1.6 percentage points to 15.7%, which is the highest level since March 2024. That increase was largest for respondents with annual household incomes below $50,000.

Respondents' level of confidence about the probability of finding a job if they lost their current job decreased slightly by 0.1 percentage point to 51.1%.

Consumers are also expecting that inflation will tick higher over the next year, with the survey finding that inflation expectations increased 0.5 percentage points to 3.6% at the one-year-ahead horizon. Inflation expectations were unchanged at 3% on the three-year-ahead horizon, and decreased slightly by 0.1 percentage point to 2.9% at the five-year-ahead horizon.

1938 - Unemployment benefits aid begins. Line of men inside a division office of the State Employment Service office at San Francisco, California, waiting to register for benefits on one of the first days the office was open.Photographer - Dorothea Lange by The New York Public Library is licensed under Unsplash unsplash.com

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