STATES THAT GROW AND SHRINK DUE TO TAXES

Jasmine Laws, writing in the January 8, 2025, issue of Newsweek, surveyed states experiencing the greatest population growth and decline. You can read her article here:https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/population-map-shows-states-growing-shrinking-fastest-in-2024/ar- AA1xbExT?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=DCTS&cvid=c7436139fae54c00a1e70994d244dcc0&ei=25
Laws draws a correlation between low tax burdens and population growth, particularly in states with the lowest overall tax burden.
According to Laws' survey, South Carolina won for the second consecutive year, with a population growth of 1.26% and an overall tax burden below the national average. Laws writes, "According to the think tank Tax Foundation, a driving factor behind state-to-state migration between July 1, 2023, and June 30, 2024, was down to tax, where states with lower taxes generally saw an increase in population while some states with higher taxes saw their population decrease.”
…
“Per the think tank, 18 of the 26 states whose overall state and local tax burdens per capita were below the national average saw their population increase.
“In addition, 17 of the 25 states with tax burdens per capita at or above the national average saw their population decrease, as did the country's capital, Washington, D.C.”
Note that not all states whose tax burdens were below the national average saw population growth. Alaska, with its low tax burden, for example, was one of the bigger losers, posting a decline of 0.51%. Law cites Katherine Loughead, a Senior Policy Analyst and Research Manager with the Center for State Tax Policy at the Tax Foundation, who wrote: “While taxes are far from the only factor affecting the cost of living or the job opportunities available in a state, they are an important factor, and they are one that is directly within policymakers’ control.” Alaska’s cold weather, for example, is not a factor that its policymakers can control.
However, consider all the other states that have no state income tax. Every one of those states experienced population growth. They are:
Washington, .03%
Wyoming, .15%
South Dakota, .23%
Texas, .28%
Florida, .28%
New Hampshire, .35%
Nevada, .52%
Tennessee, .68%
Four states with personal income taxes outperformed these eight in population growth, but the overall tax burden may also play a role. Washington and Nevada, for example, have no personal income taxes but higher overall tax burdens than all four winners. And Texas has a higher overall tax burden than two of them, according to online technology media outlet CPA Practice Advisor.[i]
Nevertheless, states with no personal income tax show impressive results in attracting people. Just imagine how well states with a true state-level FAIRtax would do! Three states, Georgia (Jim Duffie), Alabama (Chuck Bailey), and Nebraska (Rob Rohrbough and Earl Visser), are actively attempting to bring about a true state-level FAIRtax.
I would love to hear from you if you have plans for your state’s legislature to adopt a FAIRtax.
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[i] The nine jurisdictions with statewide sales taxes but no local sales taxes are Connecticut, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and the District of Columbia.
[ii] Tax Foundation: https://taxfoundation.org/data/all/state/2024-sales-taxes/
[iii] Ibid.
[iv] Fiscal Federalism: The National FairTax and the States, Tuerck, Bachman, and Jacob, The Beacon Hill Institute, September 2007, see the chart at p. 17.
[1] The average rates expressed as a percentage of AGI within each jurisdiction are: AL--0.10%; DE--0.16%; IN--0.62%; IA--0.11%; KY--1.33%; MD--2.40%; MI--0.17%; MO--0.22%; NY--1.63%; OH--1.57%; PA--1.23%. In CA, CO, KS, NJ, OR, and WV some jurisdictions have payroll taxes, flat-rate wage taxes, or interest and dividend income taxes. See Andrey Yushkov, Tax Foundation “State Individual Income Tax Rates and Brackets, 2024” February 2024; https://taxfoundation.org/data/all/state/state-income-tax-rates-2024/l See also Jared Walczak, Janelle Fritts, and Maxwell James, “Local Income Taxes: A Primer,” Tax Foundation, February 23, 2023, https://taxfoundation.org/local-income-taxes-2023/.
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