Government shutdown blocks key GDP data release – what do the Fed's models say about economic growth?

The ongoing government shutdown delayed the release of the Commerce Department's initial estimate of the third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP), as other data sources suggest solid economic growth in the quarter.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis was scheduled to release its advance estimate of third-quarter GDP on Thursday, though the furlough of workers deemed nonessential prevented the agency from compiling and releasing the report.

The Labor Department's statistical agency, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, also missed producing the September jobs report due to the shutdown. However, the need to produce the September consumer price index – which is a key component of the annual Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) – prompted the agency to temporarily return workers to publish that inflation report.

Despite the lack of an official third-quarter GDP estimate from the Commerce Department and uncertainty over when the government shutdown will end to allow its release, there are other estimates of third-quarter GDP that have been published by a pair of Federal Reserve banks.

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