The federal and state governments have had a good pandemic, enjoying the gusher of tax revenue and federal largesse. But those fat years are about to end, and the political class in most places isn’t ready for it.
The latest evidence came this month in the federal revenue news for October and November, the first two months of the 2023 fiscal year. Revenue rose only 1%, in contrast to an 21% increase in all of fiscal 2022. Individual taxes rose 4% but corporate tax revenue fell 6% and other revenue fell 21%.
The latter includes Federal Reserve remittances from interest on its bond holdings, which fell to $1 billion from $15 billion, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Those remittances will turn into deficits as the central bank pares its bond portfolio.